Sunny Side Up

In December 2003, the Indonesian Association of Geological Experts apparently knew the quake that happened on boxing day last week was coming. The report, written in Indonesian, said that

"we are currently near the end of a seismic cycle but it is difficult to predict when the 9.0 quake will occur"

Looks like they were pretty close to the mark. The cycle refers to 9.0 quakes that hit the region in 1381, 1608 and 1833 although how they classified those three quakes at 9.0 is unknown. While the previous three quakes had a roughly 220 year gap between each, the one last week occured only 171 years since 1833. Though we may not be witnessing a trend, the constantly reducing gap may mean the next quake wouldn't be too far away although it's unlikely anyone alive today would live to see it happen. Interestingly, the article never mentioned anything about a tsunami despite the quakes occuring under the sea.

Isn't hindsight a wonderful thing? If only the warning was taken more seriously.

This entry was posted on Sunday, January 02, 2005 at 1:45 PM. You can skip to the end and leave a response.